Mpox reports from newest to oldest. Information listing post.
Getting information compiled so people can be fully informed. If the 2nd pandemic comes, I want this information organized for others and myself as a resource.
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Currently, 11/24/2024, mpox has shown up in the Western world about once a week where the patient wasn’t stopped at the airport, but reach home and then got sick. In one case it three others got it.
In each case local health authorities have quickly acted to do contact tracing and it appears that the infection was contained, though on 11/24/2024, the Canadian case may not be completely contained.
If some local health authority bungles or is slow or lazy, an outbreak might occur because they were slow in contact tracing, then it becomes a race between state and federal authorities to do contact tracing faster than the disease can spread.
This current risk was entirely avoidable as was the previous 2022 mpox pandemic. It isn’t my opinion. It is the general opinion of the medical community and scientists.
I wrote my local congressional representative and got no response. Instead of having this mentioned in the log of earlier reports, I am going to have it one time at the end of this introduction.
The LGBTQXYZ leadership was preoccupied by puberty blockers and surgeries on minors. Being that the LGBTQXYZ is an appendage of the Democratic Party they couldn’t criticize Biden.
Click on the image.
Over a year later I got this nothing reponse from her office.
Reports going from newest to oldest.
20250526, 20250602
No new cases of Clade 1b outside Africa. Continues to spread in Africa.
20250519
“Reported cases vastly underestimate mpox infections.”
Title of a recently published article.
Maybe this explains why they find mpox DNA in sewage water in North Carolina, but no cases are reported. It might be still circulating around without cases detected.
Prof. Joseph A. Lewnard, May 15, 2025, “Reported cases vastly underestimate mpox infections.”
We are talking about Clade II in this paper. The clade that caused the 2022 mpox outbreak in the United States and not Clade 1b which has remained confined to Africa so far.
Professor Lewnard is a specialist in Epidemiology at UC Berkeley. From the Abstract:
Current CDC guidance stipulates that asymptomatic mpox infections are uncommon and play no role in transmission. However, transmission of mpox has continued since implementation of JYNNEOS vaccination in response to the 2022 mpox outbreak, marked by sporadic detection of clinical cases without known transmission links. To better understand this persistence, we undertook a prospective study testing for asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic mpox infection in 2,365 rectal swabs obtained from males through routine gonorrhea/chlamydia screening in Kaiser Permanente Southern California clinics in Los Angeles between May and October, 2024.
And:
This reporting fraction varies according to characteristics expected to influence disease severity: one out of every 9.4 (5.0-18.2) unvaccinated infections and one out of every 34.6 (18.6-63.7) vaccinated infections is detected, while one out every 8.5 (3.8-20.3) infections among HIV-positive individuals and one out of every 28.9 (17.1-48.5) infections among HIV-negative individuals is detected.
What this is saying is that for every known case of mpox among the unvaccinated, there are 9.4 cases of mpox never detected.
So mpox is most likely spreading asymptomatically out there.
Now would be a good time to get vaccinated.
https://ee.stanford.edu/event/05-15-2025/reported-cases-vastly-underestimate-mpox-infections
20250512
Mpox
No new cases of Clade 1b outside Africa. No cases in North Carolina despite the report of finding Clade 1 DNA in wastewater there. Makes me think that there might of been a testing error.
In Africa it continues to spread to new nations and the vacciantion efforts continue along. I think what is going to happen is that it will spread everywhere in Subsahara Africa and then either everyone will eventually have gotten mpox or gotten vaccinate.
20250505
Mpox
I am not seeing cases of mpox in returning travels. I am seeing here and there webpages for vaccination before you travel. Maybe now everyone is getting mpox vaccinations before going to Africa or if they were already in Africa they got vaccinated. I don’t really know, but the cases of mpox appearing are getting fewer.
Mpox is spreading to new parts of Africa, but also vaccination programs continue to make progress.
What I think we are going to see is mpox being contained in Africa as more and more international travelers either are vaccinated or have gotten it already.
20250428
Mpox Clade 1 found in North Carolina wastewater.
Reports don’t say if it is Clade 1a or 1b. However, it isn’t Clade 2 which was the cause of the epidemic in 2022. Clade 1b is the deadlier mpox which has been of concern for escaping outside Africa. If either Clade 1a or 1b is out there circulating in North Carolina, this is very concerning. It is on the loose and contact tracers don’t know who has it and so don’t know who to trace.
If you haven’t gotten vaccinated, now would be a good time to do so.
Newsweek, April 24, 2025, “Mpox Found in North Carolina Sewage: What to Know.”
https://www.newsweek.com/mpox-cases-north-carolina-sewage-2063459
20250421
No new cases of Clade 1b reported in England. Followup to 20240414 report about mpox case of unknown origin in the UK>
Mpox 1st case of Clade 1b in Switzerland.
Returning traveler from Africa.
20250414
Mpox – It was(is?) circulating in England.
Clade 1b case in Manchester. Not a returning traveler or someone who knows a returning traveler. How this person got it, isn’t known. They are doing contact tracing. Maybe it has stopped circulating. As of 4/14/2025 there are no new cases. But this shows that mpox cases aren’t always being detected right away.
BBC, April 8, 2025, “Mpox case confirmed with no travel links.”
A case of Clade Ib mpox virus has been confirmed in the north-east of England, but no links have been found to other known infected people.
It added the case had "no reported travel history" and no reported link with previously confirmed cases in the UK.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxnqqd2p4yo
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/health/new-case-deadly-mpox-strain-31368661
Univ. of Minnesota website.
Host animal identified for mpox.
This is a step in terms of educating people in Africa how to avoid getting mpox from wild animals. For those outside Africa it means, that pandemics in Africa can be prevented and the risk of some new strain escaping outside Africa is reduced.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/mpox-outbreak-in-africa-traced-back-to-squirrels/
Also in Nature.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00990-8
In Science also.
20250407
Nature magazine article discusses mpox as an increasing pandemic risk.
The article is lengthy and somewhat technical, but it does go into depth of all the clades and it seems individual clades have lineages. Human to human transmission is “H2H.”
This discusses the ongoing circulation of mpox outside Africa. I put words in brackets [] to make some of this clearer.
The history of smallpox brings the expectation that mpox will induce robust immunity after the infection resolves, but some cases of reinfection will occur. The number of cases outside endemic (zoonotic) regions [Africa] declined markedly from its peak in 2022–2023, perhaps because the transmission mode confines spread to high-contact sexual networks. However, the 2022–2023 global outbreak strain continues to circulate at low levels via sexual networks across the world. Continued circulation among men who have sex with men is likely facilitated by individuals who avoided exposure in the initial phase, re-infections, waning immunity after vaccination, and young adults becoming sexually active for the first time. [Boldface added.]
Even though the worst phase of the mpox outbreak is over, young Gays who haven’t been vaccinated need to get vaccinated, and Gays who haven’t gotten vaccinated yet, need to do so.
The article focuses on how the virus continues to evolve and can develop new ways of spreading to different groups and what is needed to prevent mpox outbreaks in the future.
The availability of freeze dried mpox vaccine will make it much easier to make mpox vaccination to men who have sex with men, and also make mpox vaccination available in Africa. See the next article in this report.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-025-03589-8
Mpox and Coughing.
I haven’t confirmed this from another source.
http://web.sabc.co.za/sabc/home/channelafrica/news/details?id=54e42feb-a361-4c94-8a60-96401e86b662
Mpox still a problem in Africa.
There continues to be reports of mpox reaching this nation or that nation or increasing in a nation.
Freeze-dried mpox vaccine now available.
Being freeze-dried it doesn’t need a specialized ultra-cold storage and transportation. This makes it more available in the United States, and very much more available in Africa. Stockpiling insures that it is available when needed, not restricted in distribution as it was in 2022.
The current liquid-frozen formulation of JYNNEOS, approved by the FDA in September 2019, has specific cold-chain requirements, while the freeze-dried formulation provides advantages in terms of transportation, storage conditions and shelf life, all of which are important factors for long-term stockpiling.
https://www.bavarian-nordic.com/media/media/news.aspx?news=7094
20250331
Mpox
Still a problem in Africa. No cases of Clade 1b outside Africa. I don’t know how much longer I will track this.
20250324
Mpox No new Clade 1b cases outside Africa
No new cases outside Africa. I am thinking that visitors to Africa might be getting vaccinated before they go, or if they are in Africa they have gotten vaccinated.
It is still an ongoing pandemic in Africa. I am going to keep monitoring. There are cases of mpox in Pakistan, but they are Clade 2 from travelers returning from Dubai, Saudi Arabia, and other places on the Arabian penninsula.
Study of mpox vaccine in Germany about its effectiveness. For most everyone, very effective, for people with HIV not so effective.
20250317
No new cases outside Africa. Maybe people are getting vaccinated before going there or are getting vaccinated while in Africa before returning or maybe airport vigilance is stronger. I don’t know, but it has been a couple weeks of no new cases outside Africa, except in Sao Paulo and we don’t know when that case actually started.
Still spreading in Africa. There are articles that Tanzania has its first case of Clade 1b and articles about the first cases in South Africa in Portuguese. No articles in English about whether it is spreading there.
20250310
Mpox 1b shows up in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Very serious situation.
Reuters, March 7, 2025, “Brazil's Sao Paulo state confirms first case of new mpox strain.”
The strain was detected in a 29-year old woman who lives in the Sao Paulo metropolitan region who had contact with a relative coming from the Democratic Republic of Congo, according to the statement.
So it is actually two cases of mpox 1b in Sao Paulo. Also, the person who brought mpox to Sao Paulo, was undetected until the person made a family member sick.
If others are infected it might already be spreading. How competent the health authorities are I don’t know, nor do I know how many resources they have to do contact tracing, or how determined will they be to do the contact tracing.
There are slums in Brazil where the police fear to go. Whether health workers would be able to do contact tracing there is a question.
If mpox starts spreading in Brazil, it might well just spread all the way to Mexico and be right on the border of the United States.
The other news sources are in Portuguese. I don’t know if it has been brought under control or not yet.
20250303
New variant of clade 1a that is more transmissible.
The clade that people have been worried about is 1b. They now worry about a new strain of 1a. Viruses evolve. The more people are infected the more virus exists and more the opportunities to evolve. What is needed is decisive action shutting down a pandemic. The Biden administration bungled and now we have the Trump administration of which I have doubts.
Otherwise, there haven’t been any cases outside of Africa for clade 1b. Maybe travelers to Africa or returning travelers have all gotten their shots
20250224
Mpox
No cases of clade 1b outside Africa this last week. Sill spreading in Africa.
Maybe more travelers are getting vaccinated before they go to Africa. Maybe it is just luck (statistical variation.)
20250217
Mpox – 2 cases outside Africa this week.
New York has first case of mpox clade 1b.
Mpox is spreading in Africa.
United Arabe Emirates reports 1st mpox clade 1b.
The report is towards the bottom of the first page.
Situation overall
It is still spreading in Africa. The number of times it escapes ouside Africa is now two to three times a week, instead of one time per week.
20250210
Mpox – 3 cases in three differnt nations this week outside Africa in the last week.
Three cases showing up outside Africa. Also, it is still spreading in Africa. It seems that incidents of mpox 1b showing up outside Africa have gone from one a week to two or three a week now. In each case there is contract tracing. The UK is opening vaccination centers, but saying the risk is low.
As it spread across Africa, there will be a greater likelihood of a returning traveler bringing mpox 1b to someplace outside Africa.
New Hampshire has the 3rd known case in the United States.
https://www.dhhs.nh.gov/news-and-media/dhhs-identifies-new-hampshire-resident-clade-i-mpox
Ireland has its first 1b Mpox case.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3912zl3ml2o
9th case in the UK. They are opening vaccination centers.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/mpox/uk-reports-9th-clade-1b-mpox-case
Though they say the risk is low, they aren’t taking any chances.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/mpox-vaccination-sites-surge-cases-england-b2690820.html
20250203
My letter to President Trump asking that mpox be decisively dealt with.
It was my 2nd letter. I know it is a long shot, but you start out just asking and see what your reply is to start a campaign.
[2] Have an effective program for mpox and tropical diseases.
February 2, 2025
Edward H. Sebesta.
Dallas, Texas 75216
President Donald J. Trump
1600 Pennsylvania Ave. NW
Washington, DC 20500
Dear Hon. Trump:
The Biden administration bungled mpox. This isn’t just my opinion, Nature magazine, one of the two most credible scientific publications has pointed this out. The 2022 outbreak of mpox among Gay men never should have happened. At this link you can see my letter to Hon. Crockett and I enclose it also.
I wrote U.S. House Rep. Jasmine Crockett Jan. 31, 2023 about the prior poor performance of the Biden administration and what needed to be done to prevent another mpox emergency. I didn’t get a response until a year later and it was just an irrelevant response with blah, blah, blah.
Had the Biden taken my suggestions about mpox seriously then, the current outbreak in Africa with its suffering could have been prevented. Also, almost every week, there is one or two cases where a traveler with mpox clade 1b arrives in a nation outside Africa. This is serious. As of now, the health authorities are on the case right away and doing contact tracing. What if there is a case and there is some source of turmoil, like an earthquake, hurricane, tornado, or civil disorder? There could be an outbreak.
However, the biggest issue is #7 in my letter, taking tropical diseases seriously. With the world of jet planes, international shipping, there are all sorts of ways diseases can get from one place to another. Also, is there a plan to decisively deal with mpox?
I am reading reports on Marburg and Ebola in Science and Nature magazines. An outbreak occurs, but by the time the governmental health agencies respond to test vaccines, the epidemic has been contained. These are really bad diseases with really high fatality rates. There needs to be a plan which actually delivers a working vaccine.
So far, the Gay community has been impacted by two tropical diseases, HIV and mpox. Will there be a 3rd, 4th, 5th tropical disease impacting the Gay community? Further, these diseases like to evolve and it might start with Gays, but then impact others.
The current victims of mpox in Africa are often children.
I ask that your administration do the following:
1. Have a definitive plan to decisively deal with mpox.
2. Have a plan to decisively deal with tropical diseases before they reach the United States.
I think everyone will benefit.
Sincerely yours,
Edward H. Sebesta
20250203
Rate of cases showing up outside Africa is increasing so I am trying to get info here as fast as possible. This will be updated when the weekly post goes out.
Two new separate mpox case in England. UK National Health Service opens up mpox vaccination centers.
Despite talk of risks being low, the UK is deciding to work to have men who have sex with men get vaccinated. It benefits Gays, but mpox in Africa isn’t confined to those who had sexual activity.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/2025/02/nhs-opens-new-mpox-vaccination-sites-across-england/
Two new separate mpox case in England.
8th case
Returned from recent travel in Uganda. In London.
7th case.
Recently traveled to Uganda.
https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/health/mpox-warning-seventh-case-more-30877438
20250127
Mpox, 6th case in England. Still spreading in Africa.
Update: There is now as of the morning of 2/1/2025, the 8th case in England, so I updated the title of this entry to make it easier for me to keep track.
So far the story is: There is a case of mpox outside the West; The health authorities are very active and quick to do contact tracing and containment.
However, if there was some natural disaster occurring or civil disorder occurring, the ability for the health authorities to do their job might be compromised. So though it is presented as not a risk, it might be a risk if there is something disrupting the ability of the health authorities to do something.
BBC, Jan 20, 2025, “New case of more spreadable mpox detected.”
They are doing contact tracing and I think it is very likely to be contained.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr46n2l9q6do
20250120
Mpox - More cases in Europe than I have reported previously.
I have reported one incident in Germany, turns out there are three incidents involving a total of 7 cases. I daily use Google to scan for the news, and it seems that some cases of mpox reaching the West are missed.
Univ. of Minnesota has a website where tracking information is posted. The following is dated Jan. 15, 2025.
The ECDC said there have been 11 cases in Europe since August 2024, all mild, though clade 1 is considered more transmissible and virulent than clade 2. The first case in Europe was a single case reported in Sweden in August 2024. Germany has had seven cases (one in October, five in December 2024, and one this month), Belgium reported two cases in December 2024, and France reported a single case this month. [Boldface added.]
Of note, some cases in German and Belgium reflect household transmission, with children in each country infected via a household contact who had traveled abroad and contracted the virus. Outside of Europe, both China and the United Kingdom have reported similar cases of household transmission.
The article reports that there is immediate contact tracing when a case does happen.
I wonder how rigorous and immediate contact tracing will be when a case appears in Latin America. Surely there is some travel to and back from Africa and Latin America.
With anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. setting medical policy, it might be difficult to get vaccinated in the future. If you aren’t vaccinated for mpox, now would be a good time to get it before the window closes on getting mpox vaccinations.
20250113
Mpox 1b in France, China, Spreading out of control in Africa.
So far local authorities have been quick to do contact tracing and isolating infected people. Hopefully, this continues to be the case.
In Africa there is a new nation reporting their first 1b mpox nations and articles about the lack of the needed vaccines.
I know the percentage of Gays who are vaccinated is very high, but we aren’t at 100% and there always can be breakthrough infections.
Mpox 1b in France detected by a person infected by a returning traveler.
France 24, 1/7/2025, “France detects first case of new mpox variant.”
France's health ministry said the case concerned "a person who had not travelled to central Africa, a region where several clades variants of the virus have been circulating for several months".
"However this person was in contact with two people who returned from central Africa. Inquiries are underway to find the origin of the infection and identify all people in contact."
So there is at least one other person in France who is spreading it and who hasn’t been identified.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250107-france-mpox-variant
There have been cases where a traveler returning from Africa had spread it to members of their family or to others in their apartment, but in this case in France, we don’t know if the two people recently returned from Africa and from whom the patient might have contracted it from were family members or persons they were living with. If the case is that the patient got it from someone who wasn’t living with them, it is very concerning. Mpox could already be spreading to multiple cases. We don’t know though.
It is hard to get follow up information. Did they track down the person who came back from Africa with mpox? Did anyone else get it? I am assuming that since there has been no further reporting the mpox outbreak is contained, but I don’t know for a fact.
Cluster of five cases in China.
China Daily, Jan. 9, 2025, “China identifies cluster of clade Ib mpox infections.”
Managed to spread to four individuals for a total of five cases at the time of this article. Again, the person returning to China from the Congo was spreading it to individuals and it wasn’t discovered until four had gotten sick and come down with symptoms.
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202501/09/WS677fb8e6a310f1265a1d9f3b.html
20250106
Mpox status.
No new Clade 1B cases outside of Africa. It is continuing to spread in Africa so there are more places it can leave on an airplane to someplace outside Africa.
I got my 2nd shot last week, Jan. 1, 2025. Was sort of sick for three days afterward. I am going to discuss this, because my experience really shows the lack of concern of the LGBTQXYZ Dems over real Gay concerns.
The following is about the problem I had getting my second shot.
The LGBTQXYZ+ doesn’t care about Gay health. They are preoccupied with the trans agenda. My story of getting an mpox vaccination in Dallas, Texas.
I got my 2nd shot Jan. 1, 2025. If the new strains in Africa get here, I am safe. They are being spread by other means than sexual contact there. Also, I wanted to set an example. If I am asking people to get vaccinated, I need to get vaccinated myself.
There is an important issue in the neglect of Gay needs by the LGBTQXYZ+ people, in Dallas this would be our local Stonewall Democrats. They have been on a campaign for trans medical interventions for young people. They don’t have any Gay medical concerns.
So this is the story.
I live in Oak Cliff, a part of Dallas which is south of the Trinity River which divides Dallas. I signed online up with a nearby Walgreens pharmacy to get my first mpox vaccination. I show up at the time for the appointment and I find out that branch doesn’t have the mpox vaccine. I asked then why was I allowed to make an appointment when they didn’t have it. They said they had reported the problem to corporate some time ago. Their reservation system has a bug.
So we have an obstacle to get Gays vaccinated for mpox. I think this is a concern that one of the major pharmacies has Gay people showing up to get vaccinated and they have a buggy system.
So I went to a CVS pharmacy north of the Trinity River and got my 1st shot. The CVS software told you where the mpox vaccine was available.
For my 2nd shot, I reserved at CVS nearby in Oak Cliff and when I showed up, they didn’t have it and they said that their software had a problem. Which I didn’t understand, since previously the software would tell me which place had or didn’t have the mpox vaccine.
So I waited since, I came down with some cold or virus and had to make a reservation for next week, and ended up making a reservation north of the Trinity River and on Jan. 1, 2025, I got my second shot.
So there are these issues.
[1] I paid a little over $350 USD each time, so getting vaccinated cost me over $700. Evidently Medicare and my Blue Cross doesn’t cover it. Supposedly the Biden administration is an ally of Gays?
[2] For the south half of Dallas, in Oak Cliff, it appears they don’t have mpox vaccine. This is a section of town with a high African American and Hispanic population, both groups which were over represented in the cases of mpox in 2022.
[3] The reservation systems of both Walgreens and CVS are defective. You are left to calling around or guessing where they might actually have the vaccine.
You would think that for groups that purport to have the concerns of Gays as their concern would be upset over all three issues.
So I posted on Facebook, Nov. 20, 2024, a warning to others the following after I showed up at Walgreens and they didn’t have the vaccine.
Walgreens will let you make an appointment for a vaccine at a store which doesn’t have it. Go to CVS.
Susie Hess, then president of the Stonewall Democrats, who is a straight women with a transvestite (trans) husband, a straight couple, posted this on my timeline. .
CVS requires “gender assigned at birth” for some reason and has no “decline to answer” or other option. That’s a Nope from me.
I am explaining how to get around the road block of showing up at the pharmacy and the pharmacy not having the vaccine and so you are not getting vaccinated for mpox and showing a work around so they can get vaccinated.
This barrier to getting vaccinated isn’t a concern to her, Susie Hess’ priority is trans ideology.
I did a comment in reply that it was critical to get Gay men vaccinated who hadn’t gotten vaccinated yet and explained why. No reply from Hess.
This is the modern LGBTQXYZ+ and the Stonewall Dems. Little concern about the issues of Gay men.
I think also they are also embarrased and don’t like Gay male sexuality. There is a hidden agenda to avoid issues related to Gay male sexuality.
20241230
Mpox 1b in Belgium, maybe in Nepal and Kosovo.
Next day after sending out the newsletter, a case of 1b mpox is reported in Belgium.
Univ. of Minnesota, CIDRAP, Dec. 23, 2024, “Belgium becomes 8th non-African country to confirm clade 1b mpox.”
The case was reported in Belgium on Dec. 18th, and it doesn’t get into the English language news until the 23rd. How many cases are actually happening right now of 1b outside Africa, but are yet to be reported.
An mpox 1b might be going out of control, but there might be more than a weeks delay before we are aware of an out of control outbreak.
Belgium reported the case on December 18 in an adult traveler returning from an African country where the clade 1b virus circulates. The patient, who had sexual contact with a person with mpox-like symptoms, isolated on their own before diagnosis. No high-risk contacts in Belgium have been identified, and the risk to the public in the country remains low, according to the ECDC.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/mpox/belgium-becomes-8th-non-african-country-confirm-clade-1b-mpox-case
Nepal sends out samples to find out what clade their infected patient has.
There is no information what clade the Kosovo patient returning from Africa got.
https://english.news.cn/europe/20241227/e27b7b888c0a4b108f88d6fa92aed25c/c.html
20241223
Mpox 1b – Cluster of 4 in Germany.
Right after I sent the last week’s newsletter out this report showed up. A family of four in Germany has gotten mpox 1b. However, the cases were identified after the family’s two children got it and the “special needs” school they were attending was then shut down. Since then there hasn’t been any news of further cases in Germany. However, this case shows how a family with kids in school might spread mpox to a wider population. It didn’ happen thankfully.
A school in the western German state of North Rhine-Westphalia was closed as a precaution on Monday after two children were found to be infected with the mpox virus.
And:
It is thought that a member of the family contracted the disease while on a trip to Africa. The rest of the family members were subsequently infected.
The students aren’t being transferred to another school, but are getting classes through distance learning. The reason given is, “with a view to protecting the student body in particular.” I think more clearly stated, they are concerned that some students might have gotten it and if the school was open, it could then spread to the other students.
If it was spread to other students in the school, we should know in about a week.
However, the dispersed student body, if some of them have mpox, they might have spread it. The article doesn’t say they are under quarantine.
https://www.dw.com/en/mpox-german-school-temporarily-closed-after-case-reported/a-71073359
These cases of mpox showing up in a nation outside Africa is happening about once a week so far. So far it has been contained.
In Africa it seems to be getting worse and worse. More places that have it, there are more places from which mpox to spread outside Africa.
20241216
Mpox update - Spreading in Africa, no new cases in the West.
Very iffy whether it is going to be brought under control.
Science, Dec. 9, 2024, “Congo’s Mpox Crisis.”
Subtitled is:
For the second time in 2 years, a long-overlooked virus poses a global threat. Can it be contained?
But a November visit by Science to the Kivus and Kinshasa revealed the challenges are enormous. There are far too few vaccine doses for the population at high risk, and their distribution throughout the country—more than half the size of the European Union—has been agonizingly slow. Children, who account for half the cases and are most at risk of severe disease and death, are not being vaccinated at all.
…
Whether the DRC can get mpox under control is a pivotal question for both the country and the world. If not, it will become a permanent additional stress on the country’s fragile heath system. And exported cases will pose a continual threat to other countries.
20241209
Largely the same situation.
Spreading in Africa, vaccination started, but not enough vaccines or vaccinations and not soon enough. One case did arrive in Thailand but authorities have it under control.
It is about once a week that some Ib deadly mpox is showing up in a returning passenger.
Pakistan is having multiple cases from people returning from Dubai, but it is the Clade 2.
Washing your clothes will sterilize mpox. This is what scientists had expected, but no one had verified it.
https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiae606/791874
20241202
5th case in the UK. Not related to the earlier cluster of 4 cases.
This is becoming a regular thing. Get vaccinated now.
A lot of the reports about mpox is how children are getting it.
BBC, Nov. 29, 2024, “Fifth person with mpox confirmed in England.”
Again, they are racing to trace contacts and we hope they are faster in contract tracing than mpox spreading.
Health officials say close contacts of the Leeds case are being traced but the risk to the UK population is low.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3wqg05v60wo
I got vaccinated last week. I have to wait until the last week in Dec. for my next shot, 28 days after the last one.
20241125
First case of the new mpox in Canada
National Post, Nov. 23, 2024, “First Canadian case of more severe mpox strain confirmed in Manitoba.”
The person wasn’t stopped at the airport, and sought care after he returned They are doing contact tracing. Hopefully the contact tracing is faster than the start of new cases.
No new cases in California have been reported, so it seems that it was contained there. No new cases in the UK. I think that there is going to be a challenge to the public health systems in the West about once or twice a week now.
The question is whether mpox is already spreading to some place where the public health support is limited, or when there is some type of political turmoil, would they be able to contain it.
I am watching every day. Get vaccinated NOW if you haven’t already.
Once straight people realize they are at risk, there will be a rush for the vaccine and you might not be able to get it.
20241230
Mpox 1b in Belgium, maybe in Nepal and Kosovo.
Next day after sending out the newsletter, a case of 1b mpox is reported in Belgium.
Univ. of Minnesota, CIDRAP, Dec. 23, 2024, “Belgium becomes 8th non-African country to confirm clade 1b mpox.”
The case was reported in Belgium on Dec. 18th, and it doesn’t get into the English language news until the 23rd. How many cases are actually happening right now of 1b outside Africa, but are yet to be reported.
An mpox 1b might be going out of control, but there might be more than a weeks delay before we are aware of an out of control outbreak.
Belgium reported the case on December 18 in an adult traveler returning from an African country where the clade 1b virus circulates. The patient, who had sexual contact with a person with mpox-like symptoms, isolated on their own before diagnosis. No high-risk contacts in Belgium have been identified, and the risk to the public in the country remains low, according to the ECDC.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/mpox/belgium-becomes-8th-non-african-country-confirm-clade-1b-mpox-case
Nepal sends out samples to find out what clade their infected patient has.
There is no information what clade the Kosovo patient returning from Africa got.
https://english.news.cn/europe/20241227/e27b7b888c0a4b108f88d6fa92aed25c/c.html
20241223
Mpox 1b – Cluster of 4 in Germany.
Right after I sent the last week’s newsletter out this report showed up. A family of four in Germany has gotten mpox 1b. However, the cases were identified after the family’s two children got it and the “special needs” school they were attending was then shut down. Since then there hasn’t been any news of further cases in Germany. However, this case shows how a family with kids in school might spread mpox to a wider population. It didn’ happen thankfully.
A school in the western German state of North Rhine-Westphalia was closed as a precaution on Monday after two children were found to be infected with the mpox virus.
And:
It is thought that a member of the family contracted the disease while on a trip to Africa. The rest of the family members were subsequently infected.
The students aren’t being transferred to another school, but are getting classes through distance learning. The reason given is, “with a view to protecting the student body in particular.” I think more clearly stated, they are concerned that some students might have gotten it and if the school was open, it could then spread to the other students.
If it was spread to other students in the school, we should know in about a week.
However, the dispersed student body, if some of them have mpox, they might have spread it. The article doesn’t say they are under quarantine.
https://www.dw.com/en/mpox-german-school-temporarily-closed-after-case-reported/a-71073359
These cases of mpox showing up in a nation outside Africa is happening about once a week so far. So far it has been contained.
In Africa it seems to be getting worse and worse. More places that have it, there are more places from which mpox to spread outside Africa.
20241216
Mpox update - Spreading in Africa, no new cases in the West.
Very iffy whether it is going to be brought under control.
Science, Dec. 9, 2024, “Congo’s Mpox Crisis.”
Subtitled is:
For the second time in 2 years, a long-overlooked virus poses a global threat. Can it be contained?
But a November visit by Science to the Kivus and Kinshasa revealed the challenges are enormous. There are far too few vaccine doses for the population at high risk, and their distribution throughout the country—more than half the size of the European Union—has been agonizingly slow. Children, who account for half the cases and are most at risk of severe disease and death, are not being vaccinated at all.
…
Whether the DRC can get mpox under control is a pivotal question for both the country and the world. If not, it will become a permanent additional stress on the country’s fragile heath system. And exported cases will pose a continual threat to other countries.
20241209
Mpox update.
Largely the same situation.
Spreading in Africa, vaccination started, but not enough vaccines or vaccinations and not soon enough. One case did arrive in Thailand but authorities have it under control.
It is about once a week that some Ib deadly mpox is showing up in a returning passenger.
Pakistan is having multiple cases from people returning from Dubai, but it is the Clade 2.
Washing your clothes will sterilize mpox. This is what scientists had expected, but no one had verified it.
https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiae606/791874
20241202
5th case in the UK. Not related to the earlier cluster of 4 cases.
This is becoming a regular thing. Get vaccinated now.
A lot of the reports about mpox is how children are getting it.
BBC, Nov. 29, 2024, “Fifth person with mpox confirmed in England.”
Again, they are racing to trace contacts and we hope they are faster in contract tracing than mpox spreading.
Health officials say close contacts of the Leeds case are being traced but the risk to the UK population is low.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3wqg05v60wo
I got vaccinated last week. I have to wait until the last week in Dec. for my next shot, 28 days after the last one.
20241125
First case of the new mpox in Canada
National Post, Nov. 23, 2024, “First Canadian case of more severe mpox strain confirmed in Manitoba.”
The person wasn’t stopped at the airport, and sought care after he returned They are doing contact tracing. Hopefully the contact tracing is faster than the start of new cases.
No new cases in California have been reported, so it seems that it was contained there. No new cases in the UK. I think that there is going to be a challenge to the public health systems in the West about once or twice a week now.
The question is whether mpox is already spreading to some place where the public health support is limited, or when there is some type of political turmoil, would they be able to contain it.
I am watching every day. Get vaccinated NOW if you haven’t already.
Once straight people realize they are at risk, there will be a rush for the vaccine and you might not be able to get it.
20241118
Mpox Clade 1b first case is here in the United States in California.
Wasn’t caught at the airport. Possibly people were exposed and have contracted it. We won’t know for a few days. I am tracking mpox daily in the general media and in the scientific press.
However, they are now tracking people who have been possibly exposed, so it is possibly going to be a race against the spread of mpox versus the speed of contact tracing.
In the UK though it seems they did catch all the cases and only the three people living with the original case came down with it.
There is this theme that there is no danger to the general public. I don’t agree. All we need is one patient to return and the local county health bungle it and it is on the loose.
These incidents are going to continue to occur. Not enough vaccines are arriving in Africa and it is still spreading there and so there is likely going to be increasing incidents of people returning to the United States or Europe bringing mpox with them.
CNN, Nov. 16, 2024, “United States’ first known case of more severe strain of mpox confirmed in California.”
The person diagnosed with clade I mpox had recently traveled from Eastern Africa, where an mpox outbreak is ongoing. The person was treated at a local medical facility and released, the CDC said. The person has been isolating at home and their symptoms are improving. The state and CDC are working to identify and follow up with potential contacts. [Boldface added.]
https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/16/health/mpox-clade1-california-first/index.html
Assoc. Press. Nov. 16, 2024, “US health officials report 1st case of new form of mpox in a traveler.”
They are only checking close contacts. I think they should be checking all contacts.
Health officials said Saturday they have confirmed the first U.S. case of a new form of mpox that was first seen in eastern Congo.
The person had traveled to eastern Africa and was treated in Northern California upon return, according to the California Department of Public Health. Symptoms are improving and the risk to the public is low.
The individual was isolating at home and health workers are reaching out to close contacts as a precaution, the state health department said. [Boldface added.]
https://apnews.com/article/mpox-first-us-traveler-case-6e2ee003f53b7dc1d2e33ec16ba7c628
Again, I think this is going to be a reoccuring and more frequent thing. Someone will be returning from Africa and they will come down with symtoms after they reach home. Then it will be the government doing contact tracing.
As mpox spread in Africa, the possibilities of it getting to the Western world will increase.
Biden Administration Bungling.
This danger was entirely avoidable. Not just me but others have pointed out that it is bungling by the Biden administration.
There are a lot of articles in the press and scientific press saying the same thing.
Politico, 10/10/2024, “Mpox is killing again. It didn’t have to be this way.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/10/mpox-variant-outbreak-africa-us-00183212
20241111
Mpox 4 cases of Clade 1b in the UK. The deadlier one.
As I had said before, the risk is that a person will not be stopped at the airport and it will start spreading in that nation. It will be a race between contact tracing and contagion.
I am closing monitoring that race now.
The one person who brought it into the UK has spread it to three other people for a total of 4. Since reported additional cases haven’t been discovered. See following article link after this discussion.
This first link is the commentary of the British Medical Journal when 2 additional cases were discovered. So far they seem to be keeping it contained. All 3 of the additional cases were in the original case person’s household.
Two additional cases of clade Ib mpox have been detected in household contacts of the first UK case,1 bringing the total number of confirmed cases to three, health officials have reported.
The two patients are being treated at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust in London, the UK Health Security Agency said. Officials said the risk to the UK population remained low and that contacts of all three cases were being followed up and being offered testing and vaccination as …
https://www.bmj.com/content/387/bmj.q2442
This is a report when the total count reached 4. Again all four are in the same household. Since this report no additional cases are reported as of 11/11/2024.
https://apnews.com/article/mpox-variant-clade-uk-africa-vaccine-cf54bba3e8731a30feac34f4006e9a15
My conceptualization of how mpox becomes a pandemic outside of Africa.
[1] It is missed at the airport, and then starts spreading when the infected person enters the nation. Then it is a race between contact tracers and mpox cases. As it spreads in Africa to more nations, there are more possible ways it can reach a nation.
[2] The same as No. 1 above, except, the nation doesn’t have good medical resources for treating people and doing contact tracing and the race between contact tracing and mpox cases is lost to mpox. Then that nation is another possible source for mpox to arrive via the airport.
I check daily on the status of mpox. If it looks like it is getting out of control in some nation, that is the race between contact tracing and mpox cases is lost to mpox, I will do an alert post right away.
Vaccines are on the way to Africa, but they are in the process of arriving.
20241104
Mpox status.
New strain that seems to have evolved human-to-human transmissibility
Case made it past a UK airport.
Not clear if progress is being made in Africa to control it. Different reports say different things.
The longer the pandemic is in Africa, the longer there is a chance someone brings it back and it isnt stopped at the airport or contained. Now would be a good time to get vaccinated if you haven’t already.
Mpox not caught at the London airport in the UK.
They are doing contact tracing with this person who recently came back from Africa. What this means is that it wasn’t caught at the airport, but instead he was later sick, so it might have been passed on to someone. Hopefully they are able to track down and isolate everyone who might possibly have come in contact with this person. Once a chain reaction gets initiated, it could be everywhere soon. Update: BMJ reports two more cases, and now is doing contact tracing on three people. Clade 1b.
https://www.bmj.com/content/387/bmj.q2406
This is the new report.
https://www.bmj.com/content/387/bmj.q2442
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/30/mpox-variant-clade-ib-london-first-case
Mpox, yet another new strain is a menace. Adapting to human-to-human transmission.
Nature, Oct. 30, 2024, “Monkeypox virus keeps getting better at spreading among humans.”
Subtitle is:
Analysis of a clade Ia strain of the virus circulating in Central Africa shows genetic mutations indicative of sustained human-to-human spread.
From the article.
Yet another strain of the virus that causes mpox might be readily spreading from person to person, according to an analysis of the pathogen’s genome. This development could further complicate efforts to halt the spread of the disease in Central Africa, which has seen a surge in infections over the past year. And it has left researchers scratching their heads over what is currently driving this surge.
And:
Mpox diversifies
There are four known variants of the monkeypox virus: clades Ia, Ib, IIa and IIb (see ‘Quick guide to the strains of monkeypox virus’). Historically, clade I viruses have appeared mostly in Central Africa, and clade II viruses have cropped up in West Africa.
This all changed in the mid-2010s, when a clade II strain sparked an outbreak in Nigeria. At the time, some researchers suggested that the variant might be capable of transmission through sexual contact. Their insights proved prescient: a similar clade II strain, called IIb, sparked a global outbreak of mpox in 2022 that has infected more than 90,000 people and continues today.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-03531-x
20241021
Mpox
Star, “Mpox spread getting out of control, Africa CDC warns.”
The risk to Gays is that with more people having it and it being in more nations there are more possibilities for it to slip out of Africa into some nation outside Africa. If not directly into the United States or Europe or East Asia, to a nation where it will spread and possibly slip into the United States or Europe or East Asia.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2024-10-19-mpox-spread-getting-out-of-control-africa-cdc-warns
20241014
Ib Mpox update.
Same as always. Still spreading in Africa. Spreading to new nations in Africa. Not enough vaccines and they are late getting there. There is a risk that sooner or later it will get into Europe or the United States when a case isn’t caught at the airport. That risk is increasing since there are more nations with mpox Ib and more people with mpox and thus more ways it might end up in the US or Europe.
Bungling was one reason we are in this situation.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/10/mpox-variant-outbreak-africa-us-00183212
Bavarian Nordic vaccine approved. So the number of sources of vaccines has increased.
20240930
Summary
It is spreading all over Africa fast. Cases continue to get detected by returning visitors. However, sometimes it is being caught after they get home from the airport and there is a rush to track contacts.
I am thinking that sooner or later someone won’t be stopped at the airport and it will be get released in a new nation outside Africa.
More details. You can skip this section.
My thinking that mpox would slip out of Africa seems to have been confirmed. This is a Clade 1b, new variant, in Kerala province in India.
The patient was a young man who had returned from Dubai. From the article.
The patient is being treated in a hospital and the people he came in contact with are being traced and monitored, authorities said.
The district's health officer said that about 29 friends and family members of the patient along with 37 passengers on board his flight were being monitored but none of them had exhibited any symptoms so far, the news agency reported.
He wasn’t stopped at the airport, hence they are monitoring his friends and relatives. We all the people who he came into contact with, with this much more infectious strain traced? Not clear.
Hopefully the Indian authorities tracked down all the people and there will be no more spread.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyl1jlxr02o
Update. Three cases now detected in India, 2nd case in Kerala.
This person was caught at the airport. He is also from the UAE. Maybe mpox is circulating in the UAE. I don’t know.
Obvious advice. Get vaccinated if you are going to Africa.
I would have thought the following was obvious, but if you are a medical advisor you need to state everything since it won’t be obvious to someone. I would hope that every Gay person gets vaccinated going to Africa. I would hope that every Gay person gets vaccinated even if they are not traveling.
The CDC guidance advised that travelers should speak to their providers about immunization if they are travelling to a country where clade I mpox is endemic and they anticipate sex with a new partner; sex at a commercial venue; sex in exchange for money or goods; and sex associated with a large public event.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4896263-cdc-widens-mpox-vaccine-recommendations/
Vaccines are finally showing up in Africa, but it going to take a while to get enough vaccinations done to stop the outbreak.
20240922
Mpox vaccine booster may be needed after all.
Jynneos vaccine wane significantly over the course of a year, raising new questions about just how protected vaccinated people are against reinfection and if booster doses of the vaccine are needed among at-risk populations.
Last week I reported a CNN article that medical experts thought it wasn’t needed. I updated last weeks post.
Also, if you didn’t get vaccinated or you didn’t get your 2nd shot, now would be a really good time to get one. If it reaches the United States and the general population feels threaten by it, there could be a rush for the vaccine, and there would not be enough to go around.
Mpox, no real change.
I am watching. More of the same. A lot of children are getting it. Doesn’t mean that it would spread among children in the United States, but this pandemic is different.
The following article doesn’t discuss children but just how the pandemic is out of control.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/mpox-is-not-under-control-africa-warns-africa-cdc-2024-09-19/
20240916
You don’t need an mpox booster it seems. UPDATE. Seems you might need a booster after all.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/13/health/mpox-vaccine-booster-shots-debate/index.html
Update:
Jynneos vaccine wane significantly over the course of a year, raising new questions about just how protected vaccinated people are against reinfection and if booster doses of the vaccine are needed among at-risk populations.
Mpox update.
I have been monitoring the scientific press and the news in general. It has spread a lot in Africa, cases detected at airports, Africa waiting for vaccines or not having enough. I don’t think we are entirely safe though.
You can skip the rest of this article unless you want more details.
Not a crisis in the West, but the UK is making sure it is prepared. The Guardian, “UK orders 150,000 mpox vaccine does amid spread of new strain in Africa.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/16/uk-orders-mpox-vaccine-spread-new-strain-africa
It is spreading in Africa, the death toll is rising in one nation after another, they are short of vaccines or waiting for vaccines. Airports in different countries intercept mpox cases. More countries report their first case.
The primary thing to understand is there are more cases of mpox occurring and it is spreading in Africa.
I look at it in terms of potential pathways. The more nations that have mpox and the more people in each nation that have mpox, means more potential pathways for mpox to reach a previously unimpacted nation. They may be extremely low in probability, but many low probabilities add up to a significant probability.
It could well be it will never reach the United States or Europe or East Asia, but the chance of Clade 1b breaking out in a nation does go up as it spreads elsewhere.
The airports are on alert in places like India.
However, you just need one employee at an airport to be careless, or incompetent, or bribed maybe and a mpox cases enters the nation. Or maybe the symptoms developed slowly in some patient.
So if you haven’t gotten vaccinated, do so.
If it turns out that straight people start getting mpox with this new strain, there will be a stampede to get vaccinated, and you might not get your shot.
20241014
Ib Mpox update.
Same as always. Still spreading in Africa. Spreading to new nations in Africa. Not enough vaccines and they are late getting there. There is a risk that sooner or later it will get into Europe or the United States when a case isn’t caught at the airport. That risk is increasing since there are more nations with mpox Ib and more people with mpox and thus more ways it might end up in the US or Europe.
Bungling was one reason we are in this situation.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/10/mpox-variant-outbreak-africa-us-00183212
Bavarian Nordic vaccine approved. So the number of sources of vaccines has increased.
20241007
Mpox, nothings changed. I am monitoring.
Vaccination finally starting in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Spreading in Africa, cases show up at airport in various nations. Would be a good time to get vaccinated if you haven’t been.
For info on the vaccination campaign in Africa. Basic takeaway is that the whole thing was easily avoidable, but has happened due to neglect.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-03243-2
20240922
Mpox vaccine booster may be needed after all.
Jynneos vaccine wane significantly over the course of a year, raising new questions about just how protected vaccinated people are against reinfection and if booster doses of the vaccine are needed among at-risk populations.
Last week I reported a CNN article that medical experts thought it wasn’t needed. I updated last weeks post.
Also, if you didn’t get vaccinated or you didn’t get your 2nd shot, now would be a really good time to get one. If it reaches the United States and the general population feels threaten by it, there could be a rush for the vaccine, and there would not be enough to go around.
Mpox, no real change.
I am watching. More of the same. A lot of children are getting it. Doesn’t mean that it would spread among children in the United States, but this pandemic is different.
This report is how the pandemic is out of control, but doesn’t discuss children.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/mpox-is-not-under-control-africa-warns-africa-cdc-2024-09-19/
20240916
Mpox update.
I have been monitoring the scientific press and the news in general. It has spread a lot in Africa, cases detected at airports, Africa waiting for vaccines or not having enough. I don’t think we are entirely safe though.
You can skip the rest of this article unless you want more details.
Not a crisis in the West, but the UK is making sure it is prepared. The Guardian, “UK orders 150,000 mpox vaccine does amid spread of new strain in Africa.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/16/uk-orders-mpox-vaccine-spread-new-strain-africa
It is spreading in Africa, the death toll is rising in one nation after another, they are short of vaccines or waiting for vaccines. Airports in different countries intercept mpox cases. More countries report their first case.
The primary thing to understand is there are more cases of mpox occurring and it is spreading in Africa.
I look at it in terms of potential pathways. The more nations that have mpox and the more people in each nation that have mpox, means more potential pathways for mpox to reach a previously unimpacted nation. They may be extremely low in probability, but many low probabilities add up to a significant probability.
It could well be it will never reach the United States or Europe or East Asia, but the chance of Clade 1b breaking out in a nation does go up as it spreads elsewhere.
The airports are on alert in places like India.
However, you just need one employee at an airport to be careless, or incompetent, or bribed maybe and a mpox cases enters the nation. Or maybe the symptoms developed slowly in some patient.
So if you haven’t gotten vaccinated, do so.
If it turns out that straight people start getting mpox with this new strain, there will be a stampede to get vaccinated, and you might not get your shot.
20240909
Moderna mRNA mpox vaccine makes progress.
An mRNA vaccine that is more effective would be an advantage for the Gay community. Also, an mRNA vaccine would likely be less painful. However, this is just successful testing with animals. It still remains to be tested with people and so it likely a year at least, if not two years in the future.
Mpox status.
I am monitoring mpox in the scientific press to see what is developing. I will issue an alert if there is some big change in the situation.
This is a good podcast by Bloomberg titled, “The Latest Mpox Emergency Was Entirely Avoidable.”
This is the Clade 2, less deadly variant.
20240902
Mpox status.
I am monitoring mpox in the scientific press to see what is developing. I will issue an alert if there is some big change in the situation.
Situation hasn’t changed since last reported. No new cases of the bad clade 1b being detected in travelers outside Africa. Nations in Africa still waiting for vaccines. It is still spreading fast in Africa.
It may well be much deadlier. I get conflicting reports about how deadly the news strain is as to how much deadlier it is, but it is likely it is a lot more deadly. Wired had this report, “This Mpox Outbreak Isn’t Like the Last One.”
Statistics show that more than 15,000 mpox cases and 461 deaths have been reported on the African continent since January, spreading out of countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where mpox has long been endemic, to 13 other African nations: countries like Rwanda, Kenya, Burundi, and Uganda, where the disease has never previously made an impact.
For Nachega, these patterns of behavior indicate a particularly concerning aspect of how mpox has adapted in recent years. Mpox outbreaks were traditionally mediated through wild animal bites, consuming infected meat, or so-called spillover events where rural populations living in close proximity to infected animals would contract the disease. However, it now appears that the virus has evolved into an illness which is not only sexually transmitted but can be easily passed on to family members or anyone who comes in contact with an infected person’s body fluids, allowing it to spread far more widely. [Bold face added.]
If mpox does somehow escape Africa and reaches the rest of the world, it seems it very well might not be just Gays. There will be a big rush for the vaccine, make sure you have gotten your shot now. Viruses evolve. An infected person has trillions of them, and they replicate on short time scales. Their evolution is extremely fast.
They allow a few free article views a month, then it is a paywall. So you can read this one free.
https://www.wired.com/story/mpox-outbreak-global-public-health-emergency
20240824
Special report dedicated to explaining the mpox epidemic was three simultaneous epidemics of different strains in Africa. Also, how it might likely spread to the United States, which has happened. Additional indepth information included.
Explaining the current situation of three different mpox epidemics happening at the same time.
Science magazine has a really good explanation of the three epidemics involving Clade 1, 1b, and 2. Each is impacting different populations.
Clade 1 epidemic, also called clade 1a, is primarily in the Western Congo. It spread to humans from small rodents, it impacts primarily children. It has limited human to human spreading.
Clade 1b epidemic is primarily in the Eastern Congo. It isn’t from animal reservoirs. It spreads primarily by sexual contact and is primarily in adolescents and young adults.
Clade 1b is a variant that clearly is a danger to the Gay community as clade 2 was and is. Yes, Gays got vaccinated, but there is a risk of break through infections.
Genetic analysis indicates that Clade 1 and 1b diverged centuries ago, but 1b wasn’t detected before. Clade 1b is the mpox that is spreading all over Africa and is the mpox resulting in alerts by the African Center for Disease Control and the WHO.
It is the mpox that has been detect so far in one traveler to Sweden and one traveler to Thailand.
The third epidemic of Clade 2 started in Nigeria, perhaps starting as early as 2014, but wasn’t recognized until 2017 and then lead to the world wide epidemic. The number of cases has gone way down, but it is still happening in Europe and the United States.
It really isn’t known whether Clade 1 is more deadly than Clade 2. The different health systems tend to capture data differently, and people in Africa often only go to the doctor when they are severely ill, so the data is extremely skewed. The people mildly impacted don’t see a doctor.
The article says that clade 1a and 1b have been around for a long time, and have “spilled over” into humans at different times and then ceased to be a problem.
The primary cause of the current situation is the cessation of smallpox vaccination. Smallpox vaccination also protects against mpox. Other factors are the expansion of people into forests to conduct agriculture and eating “bushmeat.”
As for deadliness of 1b, there is this result for an experimental drug that failed and where the patients got good care is 1.7%. That is out of a 1000 patients 17 will die.
One intriguing data point comes from an unpublished study of the antiviral drug tecovirimat to treat mpox patients in the DRC, carried out by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and INRB. The drug did not work, but a 15 August press release summarizing the outcomes notes that the mortality rate was 1.7% in both the treatment and placebo groups, likely because study participants received better care than people in the DRC usually do.
What are the possibility of it spreading to places outside Africa? What are the chances the Gay community gets it.
So far only two cases of clade 1b have been detected outside Africa, one traveler to Sweden and one traveler to Thailand. In both cases they were detected and quarantined and persons possibility exposed tracked down.
The case in Argentina wasn’t mpox but something else. The Philippine case detected was clade 2. There have been two reported cases of mpox in Pakistan. The first wasn’t clade 1b, but clade 2. For the 2nd case, in Pakistan, I haven’t tracked don a good source to know if the 2nd case even exists.
So far it seems to be getting caught at the airport and with the alert cases are being isolated. This is good so 1b doesn’t spread to the general community.
However, as more people get it in Africa while they are waiting for vaccines and it spreads across Africa there will be more opportunities for travelers to get it and bring it to a nation outside Africa.
As long as cases are detected at entry points to a nation and follow up tracing is done, it should be contained.
The risk though is that an infection is early and not observable as lesions, and the person enters a populous nation and then spreads there. Then that nation with an epidemic and outside Africa is a source for possible transmission to another nation.
Maybe the scenario will be the current containment works for a while, and then something slips through and that nation is now a new source for carriers to another nation. .
The one thing that will help is that after people do get mpox they will have immunity and maybe scars, and after awhile the population will either have been vaccinated or infected. This is a really bad way for immunity to be acquired by a population, but the vaccines are still promised at this time, and not delivered to Africa.
We will need to monitor the situation and see what happens. Since vaccines haven’t arrived yet, and it will take a while to get enough vaccines to get the epidemics in Africa under control, we likely will be needing to keep a close watch for some time.
Also, the chances of it not reaching nations outside Africa depends on it not developing new forms of transmission that are more contagious, like coughing or other respiratory transmissions.
Don’t get alarmed, but do get vaccinated.
Violence against Gays
At least one local religious right homophobe wanted to make an issue of mpox and Gays.
There was an Islamic activist in Dallas County who called the Dallas Police and tried to get Gay events shutdown. This is my report on it.
If clade 1 reaches the United States or clade 1b impacts a lot of straight people, there might be panic and hysteria and blaming Gays.
Should have never happened. Could have been avoided with action multiple times before.
In May 12, 2023, Nature magazine had this article, “The disease will be neglected: scientists react to WHO ending mpox emergency.” This is the fear that after the Clade 2 mpox epidemic in the Western world ending, it would be neglected.
And it was neglected, hence the current emergency in 2024.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01581-1
Previous to the Clade 2 epidemic which impacted the Gay community, there had been warnings also which were ignored.
Unfortunately, this article in Nature, Nov. 30, 2022, “These monkeypox researchers warned that the disease would go global,” is now behind a paywall.
They had warned that there was a developing risk as they observed that mpox was becoming an STD. The epidemic in 2022 could have been prevented.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-04155-9
This is Science magazines article on the history of bungling and slow response to Clade 2 in Nigeria.
Obviously after the 2022 epidemic, we needed to have a program of vaccinations in Africa, but it never happened.
When they stopped vaccinating for smallpox did anyone think about what other diseases were being prevented by the vaccine? Apparently not.
So now we have articles like this, Time, “It’s Time to Start Taking Mpox and Bird Flu seriously.”
We should.
https://time.com/7012269/take-mpox-bird-flu-seriously-essay
Associated Press story, “Africa’s mpox outbreaks result from neglect and world’s inability to stop epdemics, experts say.”
https://apnews.com/article/africa-mpox-outbreak-who-f1c5d501223ccf3b53c6d9a2727d5c8a
Vaccination programs in Africa would have been cheap and should have started at least a year ago.
We will have neglect of African diseases and evidently a disease impacting Gays isn’t considered a priority for the Biden government to effectively deal with.
Instead we have articles taking about plans to start vaccination programs and nations waiting for vaccines.
Reuters, “Why mpox vaccines are only just arriving in Africa after two year.”
CNN, “African health officials hopeful mpox shots will start within days as WHO says outbreak is ‘not the new Covid’”
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/20/africa/argentina-quarantines-mpox-ship-intl-latam/index.html
The four major failures.
1. Vaccinations needed to continue even after smallpox was eliminated.
2. Tropical diseases in general shouldn’t be neglected. With global transportation systems, a disease is just a jet flight way.
3. There should have been vaccinations going on prior to the Clade 2 outbreak that west to the West and impacted the Gay community.
4. There should have been vaccinations going after the Clade 2 pandemic.
But instead African American nations are crying out for vaccine deliveries.
How many tropical diseases will reach the Gay community.
The Gay community in the United States has been slammed by two African diseases, HIV and mpox so far, and the way the health establishment currently is neglecting tropical diseases, we shouldn’t be surprised if the Gay community gets hit with a 3rd or 4th or 5th tropical disease.
As for the so-called leadership of the LGBTQXYZ, they are busy with so-called gender affirming care and obviously don’t care about STDs that impact Gay men.
Summary
1. We will need to continue to monitor mpox.
2. This was entirely avoidable as well as the previous mpox pandemic.
3. We need to start pressuring the Democrats to be more effective on tropical diseases.
We don’t need a 3rd tropical disease after HIV and mpox to be hitting the Gay community.
The real root cause of this mess is that Gays have to invest a large portion of their political efforts fighting homophobia, and also the LGBTQXYZ leadership doesn’t care much about STDs that Gay men are of risk of.
Of course, if you haven’t gotten vaccinated, get vaccinated. If 1b reaches the United States and impacts straight people there will be a huge rush for it.
I tracked mpox for Dallas County during the last pandemic.
20240819
New strain of mpox is getting out of control. Neglect of the Biden Administration. Has reached Sweeden and maybe Pakistan & Philippines.
First reported case outside Africa in Sweden of the new deadlier strain confirmed.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gqr5lrpwxo
Reported case of mpox in Pakistan. They are doing sequencing to confirm if it is the new strain. Also, it seems that they lost track of the patient and perhaps he is spreading it.
https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/south-asia/pakistan-mpox-virus-cases-who-alert-b2597779.html
It is continuing to spread and not has become an emergency in Africa and is spreading rapidly. It is more deadly than the previous strain.
This article has a good discussion of the new strain and its characteristic, like being much more deadly.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-02607-y
The LGBTQXYZ is focused on trans “health care” and hasn’t focused on Gay men’s health unless there is some cash flow to the social organizations.
Articles on the developing situation.
WHO declares a health emergency.
20240806
If you haven’t gotten you mpox vaccination yet, do so now.
This is 15 times more deadly than the previous mpox strain. It is about 3 times deadly than covid was.
The mpox virus found in the DRC, known as clade 1, has killed about 3% of those infected in the past year. The milder variety of mpox, clade 2, erupted from Nigeria in May 2022, infecting nearly 100,000 people in 116 countries to date and spreading mainly among men who have sex with men (MSM). Only 208 deaths have been reported, a case fatality rate of 0.2%.
https://www.science.org/content/article/deadlier-strain-mpox-spreads-more-african-countries
ArsTechnica, also reports on this.
The LGBTQXYZ press, has largely been ignoring mpox after the initial surge. They don’t serve the interest of Gays, but are off supporting various special interest groups and the establishment.
I tracked the poor response to mpox in my local newsletter as well as the poor response by the US government. I don’t have any confidence that the response to this new threat will be sufficient for the protection of the Gays in the United States or world-wide. Click on images.
20240428
New Mpox strain appears to be ten times deadlier.
The following are two reports the two most authoritative science magazines on the planet.
This new sexually transmissible strain is of a sub-group of mpox classified as Clade II. The previous wave of mpox infections were of the Clade I group. If you have been vaccinated for mpox you are protected. If you haven’t been vaccinated, what are you waiting for?
The articles talk about the lack of vaccination in Africa, due to lack of resources and the real possibility of this new strain spreading all over Africa. At that point, it becomes a real risk to spread to the United States.
There isn’t a real serious program by the Biden Administration to take aggressive steps against mpox. I wrote a letter to my local congressional representative Jasmine Crockett and didn’t get a reply. This is the link to the post about the letters sent to her.
From Nature Magazine.
A virulent strain of the monkeypox virus has gained the ability to spread through sexual contact, new data suggest. This has alarmed researchers, who fear a reprise of the worldwide mpox outbreak in 2022.
Evidence from past outbreaks indicates that this strain, called clade I, is more lethal than the one that sparked the 2022 global outbreak. Clade I has for decades caused small outbreaks, often limited to a few households or communities, in Central Africa. Sexually-acquired clade I infections had not been reported before 2023.
Later in the article.
This cluster especially concerns researchers, as it has been spreading largely among sex workers, suggesting that the virus has adapted to transmit readily through sexual contact.
This could lead to faster human-to-human spread, potentially with few symptoms, says Nicaise Ndembi, a virologist at the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention who is based in Addis Ababa. “The DRC is surrounded by nine other countries — we’re playing with fire here,” he says. [Boldface added.]
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-01167-5
From Science Magazine. Link below.
Now sexual transmission has been shown to occur in the DRC as well. The outbreak in Kamituga, which started in October 2023, involved 250 suspected cases in the first 5 months, and of 108 people with a confirmed infection, 85% had genital lesions and 29% were sex workers, according to the medRxiv preprint. Just over half were women, and only 15% were children.
That’s particularly worrisome because the DRC has an mpox strain called clade I, which is estimated to be 10 times deadlier than clade II, the strain that went global in 2022 and that primarily affects countries in West Africa.
The United States needs to wage a battle against mpox in Africa and not wait until it reaches the United States.
African homophobia seems to be a problem also.
Offering shots to sex workers and MSM may seem an obvious choice, but stigma and antihomosexuality laws make it difficult to target those groups. “This requires a nuanced and culturally sensitive approach,” says Jean Nachega, an epidemiologist at the University of Pittsburgh of C[Boldface added.]ongolese origin who co-authored the preprint about the Kamituga outbreak.
20231204
A new strain of mpox and a new deadlier threat. Or not?
The article is titled, “Amid Congo’s deadliest mpox outbreak, a new worry: virus has become sexually transmissible.”
“The WHO report and a study out today also explore a worrisome possibility: that the strain of virus in DRC, far deadlier than the one that drove the global outbreak, is in some cases spreading between sexual partners.”
However, in reading the article, the situation seems to be less clear. The key word is “worry,” and in the article they say “worrisome possibility.” They don’t definitively know because of a variety of issues. One is that prior years had less monitoring and so the death tool may not have risen. Two reports contradict each other.
Another problem is prejudice against men who have sex with men (MSM) make it difficult to know what is happening. MSM don’t want to be visible.
Epidemiologist Anne Rimoin of the University of California at Los Angeles, another EID co-author, has studied mpox in DRC for two decades and says it’s unclear whether sexual transmission made a significant contribution to the apparent explosion in cases—or whether it’s truly even a new phenomenon in the country. “If you’re not looking for it, you’re unlikely to find it,” says Rimoin. She adds that people with genital lesions may not seek care, especially if they are MSM or sex workers. “There's stigma associated with transmission in this manner, so it's going to be very hard to document,” she says.
There isn’t vaccine available there.
If the new variety of mpox is sexually transmitted and it is deadlier, it is extremely unlikely that it will remain in the Congo.
Does the Biden Administration have a comprehensive plan for mpox. Does the LGBT media even care? Did the issue of a shortage of vaccine for mpox ever get resolved?
The establishment LGBT “leadership” locally here in Dallas avoided the topic. LGBT groups whined that “it wasn’t a Gay disease,” when 98.5 of the cases in Dallas County were men, and world wide scientific reporting said it was MSM who were getting it.
One of the problems with an LGBTQXYZ movement, is that specific needs of Gays tend to get lost, and the Gays in the LGBTQXYZ are somewhat removed from the life of everyday Gays.
20230529
Mpox vaccine found to be 88% effective with two doses.
This is a long article but buried in it is the two-dose effectiveness.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7220a4.htm
Get vaccinated. There are still mpox cases occurring and it seems the federal government as well as the LGBTQXYZ establishment isn’t focused on mpox.
20230522
WHO declares mpox emergency over. Fear that mpox will be neglected.
The LGBTQXYX establishment doesn’t seem to be too concerned. It only affects Gay men and Bi men. The Respectability Gays see it as only impacting the bad Gays.
Also, the vaccines used to prevent mpox are actually vaccines designed for smallpox and the way it was administered was to stretch supplies with questions of how effective this stretching was. What needs to be done is have a vaccine developed specifically for mpox and mpox and small pox.
Also, the Biden administration hasn’t adopted a program to effectively deal with tropical diseases who we see don’t always remain tropical.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01581-1
The following is a consequence of the lax attitude of the LGBTQXYZ establishment and the Biden administration to mpox. A warning about a resurgence this summer.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/15/health/mpox-risk-summer-cdc-alert/index.html
An mpox vaccine isn’t available generally, but is still distributed through specific centers.
One reason for the LGBTQXYZ establishments lack of concern is that there is no cash flow expected to fund organizations with staffs.