Trans ideologues taking the Democrats over the cliff. Update: down to +1%.
There is the additional denial that they are taking the Democrats over the Cliff.
Subscriptions are free.
Harris margin over Trump versus time.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
Can you guess when the trans ads started?
Update: Down to +1.0% as of 11/3/2024 on 538 poll. The trend is DOWN.
NPR has a report on 10/19/2024 about the ads which have been run.
https://www.npr.org/2024/10/19/g-s1-28932/donald-trump-transgender-ads-kamala-harris
CNN reports on 10/18/2024 about the Trump ads.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/18/politics/trump-transgender-attack-ads-harris/index.html
There is going to be a delay in impact due to the fact that a poll takes some time, but about the time the ads start, Harris margin declines.
Denial that the ads against boys in the girls locker room or competing in womens sports are effective.
There was immediately denial that these ads would be effective and even assertions that they would hurt the Republicans.
There is this press release by the Human Rights Campaign
HRC, Oct. 24, 2024, “ICYMI: New Survey Finds Anti-Trans Ads Ineffective, Disliked by Voters.”
It is a study by Data for Progress. From the press release.
Key findings from the poll back up the long-supported claims that anti-transgender rhetoric is not what wins elections:
The use of political attack ads against transgender people was described as “sad and shameful” by the majority of Democrats (61%) and Independents (58%), and even by a plurality of Republicans (41%). The majority of voters also said that they feel that these ads are “mean-spirited” and “out of hand”
85% of Republicans said candidates should back away from transgender messaging, more than the share of Democratic (75%) and independent (82%) voters who said the same
By a more than 20 point margin (52% to 31%), voters would back a candidate who supports transgender rights versus a candidate who opposes transgender rights; by similar margins (52% to 29%), voters trust the Democratic Party over the Republican Party to handle transgender issues
Who paid for this poll, isn’t clear.
Looking at the poll the questions in the poll are avoiding the issues. There isn’t a simple question about men in women’s sports, no question about boys in the girl’s lockerroom or puberty blockers and operations on teenagers and children.
Instead there are questions where the person choose between these two loaded answers.
A candidate who says that the government should stay out of people’s private lives and that there is too much legislation targeting a small minority of the population.
Vs.
A candidate who says that we need new laws that restrict access to transgender health care and keep “biological boys” out of girls’ sports.
It isn’t a wonder that the Democrats being driven over a cliff on these issues are not convinced.
The trans lobby isn’t happy and Them is really not happy as in this editorial, Oct. 24, 2024, “The GOP is Doubling Down on Anti-Trans Ads. Democrats’ Rebuttals Are Abysmal,” by Samantha Riedel.
The article is written with a lot vitriol and hysteria.
There is the conflation of trans issues with the other letters of the alphabet.
At a 2017 “values voter summit” held by the infamous and influential Family Research Council, speakers were already openly discussing plans to “divide and conquer” the LGBTQ+ rights movement through targeting trans people, with such rhetoric becoming commonplace on the right during the Trump presidency. One might assume that Democrats, in the ensuing seven years, would be prepared to offer a strong public rebuttal that defends trans people while highlighting the GOP’s petty bigotries. One would be wrong.
This isn’t a Gay issue or Lesbian issue or Bisexual issue. The use of LTBTQ+ is to confuse the issue and do force teaming of Gays and Lesbians and Bis.
Democrats fighting not to be taken down by ads against trans extremism are castigated by Them.
Allred doesn’t want to comit political suicide. By the way editorial staff of Them, 14 year old girls cutting off their breasts is more than strange.
Allred (nearly a full month later) chose a rebuttal that appeared to accept Cruz’s core argument — that trans girls are boys, and their healthcare is dangerous and strange. “I don’t want boys playing girls’ sports or any of this ridiculous stuff that Ted Cruz is saying,”
Sherrod Brown, Senate candidate in Ohio didn’t want to be taken down by trans extremism either.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, in an ad approved by Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, even used a newscast with the phrase “let transgender biological men participate in women’s sports” and proudly proclaimed Brown’s agreement with Gov. Mike DeWine, who signed an executive order this year drastically curtailing gender-affirming medical care for trans children and adults.
Kamalah Harris and Tim Walz are also attacked. The Democrats are attacked.
Them tries to mix the transgender issue with other issues with a finally of typical trans rhetoric.
At best, our rights as trans people are treated as a political liability, an albatross Democrats dare not drape around their necks, even after naked bigotry and calls for anti-trans violence have become the modern Republican Party’s most defining traits. Confronted with outright fascistic eliminationism from radical right opponents, Democrats have yet again proven that — whether through lack of information, principles, or courage — they just can’t bring themselves to fight for a truly better world.
https://www.them.us/story/democrats-anti-trans-ads-donald-trump-kamala-harris-op-ed
An earlier post discusses the attacks on Allred and Brown.
LGBTQNation thinks the Data For Progress poll is credible also. In an Oct. 24, 2024, “Donald Trump is hammering Kamala Harris on trans issues. But Voters say they don’t care.”
On the Trump ads regarding trans, LGBTQNation states:
In the midst of a flood of disparaging ads about transgender people released by the Trump campaign and his allies and other MAGA Republican candidates, Data for Progress asked voters if transgender people deserve to be treated with dignity and respect. An overwhelming number of all voters, 74%, strongly or somewhat agreed, including 58% of Republicans.
Most every decent person wants to treat transgender people with dignity and respect. The issue is boys in girls’ lockerrooms and men competing in sports. It is a bald face evasion of the question.
But the strategy looks doomed for failure based on respondents’ opinions in the survey.
The article is misleading and is attempting to push the Democrats to defeat.
The Hill, has an article, Oct. 24, 2024, “Majority of voters view anti-transgender ads as ‘mean-spirited’.”
New polling from a left-leaning firm shows a majority of voters see a recent wave of campaign ads targeting transgender student-athletes and gender-affirming health care as “mean-spirited,” and the ads could be backfiring.
No information who paid for the poll.
Also, people might feel that the ads are mean spirited, but they still don’t want penises swinging in the girls’ lockeroom, men competing in women’s sports, and young teenagers having their breasts removed.
The reporting is clearly ideological and not reality based.
https://thehill.com/homenews/lgbtq/4949915-gop-campaign-ads-trans-rights/
The New Republic, Oct. 24, 2024, article, “Trump Has a New Focus in His Campaign Ads — and His Base Hates It.”
Data For Progress is the basis of this article.
Donald Trump has decided the most important issue of the election. It’s not the economy, immigration, or foreign policy—instead, it’s demonizing transgender people.
Again, the the assertion in the headline is based on this poll result.
Moreover, most voters say they’d vote for a candidate who supports trans rights over one who does not. When messaging is introduced to explain two hypothetical candidates’ stances on trans issues related, 57 percent of voters chose the candidate “who says that the government should stay out of people’s private lives and that there is too much legislation targeting a small minority of the population.”
Most sensible people want trans people to be treated with respect. Not too many would like to see a small minority of the population targeted by government. However, these aren’t the issues and these are misdirections form the issues at hand. Which are, since it seems a lot of people don’t get it are:
Boys in the girls’ lockeroom.
Men competing in women’s sports.
Cutting off breasts of young teenage girls.
https://newrepublic.com/post/187515/trump-anti-trans-campaign-ads-backfire-poll-republicans
The LGBTQXYZ media and some of the establishment media is taking the Democrats over a cliff.
Over the cliff will go abortion rights. The next four years could be extremely dangerous for Lesbians and Gays under the Trump administration. The Ukraine could end up being handed over to a really homophobic state. LGBT rights won’t be part of American foreign policy.
The rights of a great many people are going to crash because of a narrow ideological faction which is insane and the LGBTQXYZ media is driving the car over the cliff.
What next"?
If the Harris/Walz ticket wins, likely the Democrats will take a hard look at transgender policy.
However, Trump is favored to win in the 538 Simulation, about 53 to 46 due to the Electoral College, which over represents rural areas. Also, I think probably 1 or 2 percent of the people answering opinion polls won’t admit voting for Trump. So the odds are much more strong favored for Trump. However, there is voter turnout efforts and a lot of people are scared and so in the end we won’t know until after the election.
In which case it might be a very difficult situation for Lesbians and Gays.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo
For the Democrats, if Trump wins, there is likely going to be a critical review of how they got roped into the extremes of the transgender agenda and what actions they need to take. I suggest that they not support the queer studies agenda and ditch the LGBTQXYZ establishment.
If Trump wins and it turns out to be bad for Lesbians and Gays, we need to make sure the entire LGBTQXYZ establishment is not part of the Lesbian and Gay communities and dump them. We need to dump all the Lesbians and Gays who collaborated with the LGBTQXYZ.
Though it might be that we will have our hands ful with other problems.
If Trump wins and it doesn’t turn out badly, and I think it will, the Gay conservative readers can email me their comments and I will read them. I don’t think it is likely, but the future is often opaque when we think it is clear.
The Right's Gender Scam: How They're Conning America with Fake Outrage
A grotesque theater of bathroom panic and pronoun hysteria, designed to keep you scared, distracted, and obedient—while they ignore the real problems.
https://open.substack.com/pub/patricemersault/p/moral-panic-for-dummies?r=4d7sow&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true